Autumn 2022 Market Update - Part 2

Autumn 2022 Market Update - Part 2

  • Allison Benham
  • 10/21/22

The Front Range real estate market continues to adjust to both increasingly high interest rates along with growing concerns of an impending recession. Buyers are acting more carefully, sellers are experiencing longer list times and are making price reductions, and investor activity has largely gone on hold. Home values have dropped about 10% off of their highs of March/April and probably have some more declines to go before leveling out. However, interestingly, home prices are still up year-over-year.

We are in a post-pandemic-driven-high-hangover coupled with an ice cold bucket of additional economic challenges on the horizon. So what's it all amount to for our Front Range market? Are things super bad? No, not really. Just a lot less exciting than it has been. Let's take a look below.


Before we look at the usual data, we think it is particularly useful to point out that in real estate, we only ever have the past month's data to work from, and in a

quickly shifting market, we need to do a little extra interpretation of

the numbers to get a good idea of what is happening in the moment.

Noteworthy Stat of the Month

One of the most helpful and telling statistics that best shows the change from our hot spring market to our lukewarm-at-best fall market is the number of showings per day per pending listing before receiving a contract.


Over the last few months we saw median showings per listing decline (with a small uptick in the past month), while days on market went up. These two things happening together add up to a continuous month-to-month decline in buyer activity for any given day that home was for sale. See the chart below:

The green line is particularly relevant in a shifting market because it gives us insight into what we can expect to see in the next one to two months in the other data that we track. Buyer activity of the month prior tends to dictate pending and sale activity today. What we can see is that buyer activity in September continued its steady decline from spring coming in lower than August. And since September activity was lower than August's, we believe that today's numbers are likely a little weaker than what you'll see in the graphs below. Until this trend reverses, we expect the market to continue to correct downward.

On to the usual market stats.

Median Sold Price


Median Sold Price- Boulder County- Single Family

Click on the charts to enlarge them.

The % gains shown here represent year-over-year gains.

Year-over-year, prices are still up. However, when compared to what homes may have sold for in the spring time, sellers are having to adjust their expectations down.


Median Sold Price- Denver, Arvada, Westminster, and Broomfield- Single Family Homes

While these appreciation numbers in the Denver metro area still quite strong year-over-year, the slow down is under way and many sellers, just like those in Boulder County, are needing to take price cuts in order to attract a buyer.


Months Supply of Inventory

Months Supply of Inventory shows us how quickly the current inventory of homes is being bought up. A rate of 6 months means that if no new listings were to come on the market, all current and active listings would be sold within 6 months. A rate of below 4-6 months indicates a Seller’s Market.

Months Supply of Inventory- Boulder County

While the Months Supply of Homes is still technically in "Seller's Market" territory, we have a lot more inventory of homes for sale than we did in months past. This metric would lead you to believe that sellers still have a strong advantage, however that isn't what's playing out. Most sellers who have homes listed now are experiencing more "Buyer's Market" type sales conditions.

As you can imagine these increased inventory numbers are making buyers feel as though they have tons to choose from. Their urgency to pull the trigger, engage in multiple offer situations, or bid above the list price is much diminished as compared to months and years past.

Months Supply of Inventory- Denver, Arvada, Westminster, and Broomfield

As you can see, inventory numbers are up significantly in the Denver metro as well.


Given these market conditions and the higher mortgage rates that seem like they will be with us for some time, we are likely heading into a slower winter. Buyers will have a lot of leverage if they can work around the higher interest rate with seller or lender-paid interest rate buy downs. Sellers will likely need to price aggressively to be the ones whose homes are chosen at the end of the weekend.

Time will tell what the upcoming months bring! We'll be sure to keep you "in the know" as things progress.

Until next time~

Allison and Ken

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